Is everyone leaving Chicago?
No. Chicago has grown for three years in a row. The city's estimated population was 2,731,585 as of July 2025, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures. That puts Chicago within about 1% of its 2020 population.
But that does not mean Chicago is suddenly booming either.
Growth has slowed. Illinois is still losing some residents to other states. And at the same time, buyers in popular Chicago neighborhoods are still running into bidding wars.
That is the part people miss.
A city can grow slowly and still have a very competitive housing market.
If you are thinking about moving to Chicago, there is a good chance someone has already said it to you: "Is not everyone leaving Chicago?"
I hear this all the time.
And I get why people ask. Chicago gets a lot of dramatic headlines. But the actual population data tells a much more complicated story.
So let us look at what is really happening - and what it means if you are thinking about buying a home here.
I also broke this down on my YouTube channel. You can watch the full video here, or keep reading for the written version.
Let us start with the part that is true.
Chicago did lose population during the first few years of the pandemic.
That was real.
But Chicago was not the only city dealing with that. New York, San Francisco, Boston, and other dense cities were going through similar changes. Offices closed. Transit emptied out. Remote work gave people the option to live somewhere else. Some people wanted more space. International migration slowed. Births declined. Deaths rose.
All of that showed up in the population count.
So yes, Chicago lost people.
But the dramatic version - that everyone looked at Chicago, decided the city was finished, and ran away - is not what the data shows.
Like a lot of big cities, Chicago took a hit during the pandemic. Then the direction changed.
Chicago grew in 2023.
It grew again in 2024.
And it grew again in 2025.
That makes three years in a row of population growth.
The city's estimated population reached 2,731,585 as of July 2025, which puts Chicago close to where it was in 2020.
That does not mean Chicago is exploding with growth. I would not describe it that way.
What it does mean is that the decline stopped, and the city started gaining people again.
That part does not get nearly as much attention as the population-loss headlines did. "Everyone is leaving Chicago" is a much more clickable story than "Chicago quietly added residents again."
But if population loss is one of the reasons you have been hesitant to move here, this matters.
You would not be moving into a city everyone else is abandoning.
Now, here is where we need to be honest.
Chicago is growing again, but the growth has slowed.
The city added roughly 28,000 people between 2023 and 2024. Between 2024 and 2025, it added about 5,253 people.
So yes, the population is still moving in the right direction.
But the most recent increase was much smaller.
This is where people can take the same data and spin it two different ways.
One person can say: "Chicago has grown three years in a row." That is true.
Another person can say: "Chicago's population growth slowed a lot last year." That is also true.
The real answer is more balanced: Chicago is no longer in the sharp population decline we saw earlier in the pandemic, but this is not a massive boom either.
It is slow growth.
And slow growth does not automatically mean the housing market is easy for buyers.
That is where people get confused.
A lot of migration headlines make it sound like people only move one way: out of Illinois.
That is not true.
People are moving out of Illinois, but people are also moving in.
The next set of numbers is for the entire state of Illinois, not just the city of Chicago. So we should be careful with it. It does not tell us exactly who moved into Chicago proper.
But it does show something important: migration is not one-way.
The top states sending people into Illinois were:
Add up the top ten states and you get roughly 120,000 people moving into Illinois in a single year.
That is the part the headlines usually leave out.
Texas and Florida are constantly described as the places everyone is moving to. But they are also two of the largest sources of people moving into Illinois.
California and New York are constantly described as states everyone is fleeing. But thousands of people moved from both of those states into Illinois in one year.
To be clear, that does not mean Illinois gained more people from those states than it lost to them. These are people moving in, not the net result after people moving out.
But the distinction matters. When you hear "people are leaving Illinois," it sounds like a one-way exodus. In reality, people move back and forth constantly.
So if you are considering a move from Texas, California, Florida, New York, or another state to Chicago, you are not doing something strange. Plenty of people are making that move.
The number one destination for people leaving Illinois was not Florida.
It was not Texas.
It was not Arizona.
It was Indiana.
More than 25,000 people moved from Illinois to Indiana in the most recent year of data.
After Indiana came Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, California, Missouri, Michigan, Tennessee, Iowa, and Arizona.
Five of the top ten destinations were nearby Midwestern states.
That is a very different picture from "everyone in Illinois is packing up for the Sun Belt."
Some people are moving across the country. Some are moving to warmer states. But a lot of people are staying close to family, work, or the life they already have in the Midwest.
That makes sense, especially when you look at housing costs, property taxes, space, commute patterns, family needs, and retirement decisions.
The data tells us where people moved. It does not tell us the full story behind every move.
If you are comparing Chicago with Northwest Indiana, one of the obvious financial differences is property taxes.
The property tax gap can be real.
Using broad statewide averages, Illinois property taxes are around 1.79% of a home's value, compared with about 0.76% in Indiana.
On a $750,000 home, that could look something like this:
That is a big difference.
But this is a simplified example. It does not mean every $750,000 home in Chicago or Indiana will have those exact tax bills.
In Cook County, two homes with similar values can have very different tax bills depending on the location, assessed value, exemptions, reassessments, and the history of the property.
That is why I always tell buyers: do not guess on taxes. Look up the actual tax bill for the actual property. You can use the Cook County Property Tax Portal to check a specific home before you fall in love with it.
Illinois has a flat individual income tax rate of 4.95%, according to the Illinois Department of Revenue. Indiana's state individual income tax rate is 2.95% in 2026, with an additional county income tax depending on where you live.
So yes, the tax difference is real. And taxes are one reason some people compare Chicago with Northwest Indiana.
But I would not tell you taxes explain every move. People move for all kinds of reasons: affordability, space, job changes, family, retirement, schools, commute, lifestyle, or just wanting something different.
What I can tell you is this: property taxes are a real cost of owning a home in Chicago, and they often surprise buyers relocating from another state. That does not mean you should rule Chicago out. It means you should understand your full monthly cost before you write an offer. Mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA fees if applicable, utilities, maintenance - all of it matters.
This is the part most people get wrong.
A city does not need explosive population growth for certain neighborhoods to be competitive.
Prices are not set by the entire city population. Prices are set by how many buyers want the same kind of home, in the same neighborhood, at the same time.
And on the North Side, that number is still high.
In June, the Chicago Association of REALTORS counted roughly 1,300 single-family homes and 2,100 attached properties on the market in the entire city. That was the lowest on record going back to 2008.
Here is what that looks like in real life.
Earlier this year, I had a buyer offer on a home in Uptown. They went $100,000 over asking, with 20% down, as-is terms, and a full appraisal gap waiver. They lost.
Another buyer offered $50,000 over asking in Andersonville. They lost too.
And on one home my buyer did win, we were one of 20 offers.
Twenty offers on one house, in a city that supposedly nobody wants to live in.
That is why the "everyone is leaving Chicago" headline does not help buyers understand the actual market. You are not competing against the entire city. You are competing against the other buyers who want the same home you want.
And if that home is in Lakeview, Lincoln Square, Ravenswood, Andersonville, Uptown, North Center, or another high-demand neighborhood, the competition can still be very real.
Chicago can have slow population growth and still have a housing shortage in the neighborhoods buyers want most. Both things can be true.
This is why I do not love broad headlines.
"Chicago is losing people." "Chicago is growing again." "Everyone is leaving." "Everyone is moving back."
None of those headlines tells you what will happen when you try to buy a three-bedroom home in Andersonville, a two-bedroom condo in Lakeview, or a single-family home in Lincoln Square.
The market you experience depends on:
That is why a citywide population number is useful, but it is not enough. It can tell you something about the direction of the city. It cannot tell you whether the home you want will get 2 offers or 20.
This is a fair question, especially if you are buying and planning to hold the home for 10, 15, or 20 years.
The honest answer is that nobody knows exactly what Chicago will look like in 2046.
But we can look at the recent past.
During the pandemic, when Chicago saw some of its largest population losses, home prices did not fall. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Chicago index rose about 28% between January 2020 and December 2022. In 2021 alone, the index rose more than 12%.
That means the years when Chicago was losing the most people were also years when home values were rising.
More recently, Chicago led all 20 major metros in the latest Case-Shiller reading, with home values up approximately 6.9% year over year.
So yes, population matters over the long term. But population does not explain the whole housing market by itself. Inventory, interest rates, wages, household formation, new construction, neighborhood demand, property taxes, and buyer preferences all matter too.
A citywide population number is one piece of the story. It is not the whole story.
No.
Chicago has grown for three consecutive years and is now within about 1% of its 2020 population.
But growth slowed significantly in the most recent year. Illinois does still lose residents to other states. People are also moving into Illinois from places like Texas, California, Florida, New York, Wisconsin, and Indiana. All of that is true at the same time.
So the real answer is not "everyone is leaving Chicago." And it is not "Chicago is booming."
The real answer is more nuanced: Chicago is growing slowly, migration is moving in both directions, and the housing market is still very competitive in the neighborhoods and property types buyers want most.
That is the part that matters if you are thinking about buying here. Slow population growth does not automatically mean lower prices. And it definitely does not mean you will find an abundance of homes in the neighborhood you want.
If you are considering a move to Chicago, do not make the decision based on a headline.
Look at your actual life.
Where would you work? How often would you commute? Do you want to be near the lake, the train, restaurants, parks, schools, or family? Do you want a condo, a two-flat, a townhome, or a single-family home? What monthly payment actually feels comfortable after taxes and insurance? Which neighborhoods fit your lifestyle and your budget?
Those questions matter more than whether someone online says everyone is leaving.
Chicago is not for everyone. No city is.
But if you want walkable neighborhoods, lakefront access, public transit, architecture, restaurants, parks, culture, and a real city lifestyle, Chicago still offers a lot - often at a lower price point than New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Washington, D.C.
The key is understanding the full picture before you buy. Not the headline. Not the stereotype. The actual numbers, the actual neighborhoods, and the actual homes available in your price range.
Chicago is growing, but slowly. The city's estimated population reached 2,731,585 as of July 2025, its third straight year of growth. The most recent year added about 5,253 people, which is roughly 0.2%, so the growth is real but much slower than the year before.
No. Chicago has grown for three consecutive years and is now close to its 2020 population level. Some people are leaving Chicago and Illinois, but people are also moving in. The story is not one-way.
Because population-loss headlines from the pandemic years got a lot of attention, and Chicago is often used in national political and media narratives. But the latest population data shows three straight years of growth, even though that growth has slowed.
The top states sending people into Illinois include Texas, California, Wisconsin, Indiana, Florida, New York, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa. Texas and California were the top two sources in the most recent data.
The top destination was Indiana, followed by Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, California, Missouri, Michigan, Tennessee, Iowa, and Arizona. Several of the top destinations are nearby Midwestern states, not just Sun Belt states.
Not necessarily. Home prices are driven by how many buyers want a specific type of home in a specific neighborhood versus how many are available. In many North Side neighborhoods, inventory remains very low and well-priced homes can still receive multiple offers.
Yes. Buyers are still active, especially in high-demand neighborhoods and property types. In some cases, buyers are competing against 10, 15, or even 20 offers on the same home.
It depends on your goals, budget, timeline, and the neighborhood you are considering. Chicago is not one market. Some areas are highly competitive, while others move more slowly. The right question is not whether Chicago overall is "good" or "bad," but whether the specific home and neighborhood fit your life and your numbers.
I am Dee Savic, a Realtor with Baird & Warner. I have lived in Chicago for 27 years and spent 24 of them helping people buy and sell homes across the North Side.
I have this conversation constantly. Someone is seriously considering the move, and someone in their life is warning them off based on a headline.
If that is you, let us look at your actual numbers instead. The neighborhoods that fit how you live. The real tax bills on the homes you are considering. The inventory in your price range. And what it actually takes to win in this market.
Watch the full breakdown on YouTube, and subscribe to my channel for a new Chicago breakdown every week.
You can also schedule a complimentary and confidential consultation, or call or text me directly at 773.719.0989. Or book directly on my calendar here.
Population data sourced from U.S. Census Bureau estimates as of July 2025. Migration data sourced from Census Bureau state-to-state migration flows. Home price data sourced from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. Property tax rate comparisons are statewide averages and individual property tax bills will vary. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or tax advice.
Dee Savic is a Realtor with Baird & Warner, a 24+ year real estate professional, and a 27+ year Chicago resident with 300+ closed transactions and hundreds of five-star reviews. She specializes in helping buyers, sellers, and relocation clients across Chicago's neighborhoods.
Dee Savic
Realtor® | Baird & Warner
4553 N. Lincoln Ave, Chicago, IL 60625
773.719.0989
[email protected]
deesavic.com
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I'm Dee Savic, your trusted Chicago real estate expert, and I'm here to guide you through your relocation journey. Discover why Chicago is the perfect city for you; from its diverse neighborhoods to its cultural vibrancy, Chicago offers an unmatched urban experience. Together, we'll find a community and home that fits your lifestyle and aspirations.
